{"id":326257,"date":"2025-08-20T09:02:38","date_gmt":"2025-08-20T06:02:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/?p=326257"},"modified":"2025-08-20T09:02:38","modified_gmt":"2025-08-20T06:02:38","slug":"abd-korkutmaya-basladi-ekonomisi-cokecek-mi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/?p=326257","title":{"rendered":"ABD korkutmaya ba\u015flad\u0131… Ekonomisi \u00e7\u00f6kecek mi?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"ABD<\/p>\n

ABD’de gelecek 10 y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 CBO tahminini 1 trilyon dolar a\u015facak.<\/p>\n

ABD\u2019de federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce tahmin edilenden yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sorumlu Federal B\u00fct\u00e7e Komitesi\u2019nin (CRFB) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son hesaplamalara g\u00f6re, 2026\u2019dan 2035\u2019e kadar olan d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcm\u00fclatif a\u00e7\u0131k 22,7 trilyon dolara ula\u015facak. Bu rakam, Kongre B\u00fct\u00e7e Ofisi\u2019nin (CBO) Ocak ay\u0131nda mevcut yasalar do\u011frultusunda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 21,8 trilyon dolarl\u0131k tahmini a\u015f\u0131yor. Yeni projeksiyonlar, Trump y\u00f6netimi d\u00f6neminde hayata ge\u00e7en geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 vergi indirimleri ve harcama art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren One Big Beautiful Bill Yasas\u0131 ile uygulamada olan g\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifelerinin etkisini yans\u0131t\u0131yor. CRFB\u2019ye g\u00f6re bu yasa tek ba\u015f\u0131na 2035\u2019e kadar a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131 4,6 trilyon dolar art\u0131racak. Ancak Trump\u2019\u0131n uygulamaya koydu\u011fu yeni tarifelerin \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131lda yakla\u015f\u0131k 3,4 trilyon dolar gelir sa\u011flamas\u0131 bekleniyor ve bu da a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 dengeleyebilecek. CRFB ayr\u0131ca 2025 mali y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 1,7 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Bu rakam, gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131lan\u0131n y\u00fczde 5,6\u2019s\u0131na denk geliyor ve bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda seyrediyor. Ancak a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n zamanla artmas\u0131 bekleniyor ve 2035 y\u0131l\u0131nda 2,6 trilyon dolara, yani GSYH\u2019nin y\u00fczde 5,9\u2019una ula\u015fmas\u0131 muhtemel. Faiz \u00f6demelerinin de h\u0131zla y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar olan faiz \u00f6demelerinin 2035\u2019te 1,8 trilyon dolara \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ve toplamda on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde 14 trilyon dolar\u0131 bulmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Daha olumsuz bir senaryo ele al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mahkemelerin tarifeleri iptal etmesi, baz\u0131 ge\u00e7ici vergi indirimlerinin kal\u0131c\u0131 hale gelmesi ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131 halinde, a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n 7 trilyon dolar daha artabilece\u011fi ve 2035 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar borcun GSYH\u2019ye oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 134\u2019e ula\u015fabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu da \u00fclkenin mali s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ciddi bir risk anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD’de gelecek 10 y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 CBO tahminini 1 trilyon dolar a\u015facak. ABD\u2019de federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde daha \u00f6nce tahmin edilenden yakla\u015f\u0131k 1 trilyon dolar daha y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Sorumlu Federal B\u00fct\u00e7e Komitesi\u2019nin (CRFB) yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 son hesaplamalara g\u00f6re, 2026\u2019dan 2035\u2019e kadar olan d\u00f6nemde k\u00fcm\u00fclatif a\u00e7\u0131k 22,7 trilyon dolara ula\u015facak. Bu rakam, Kongre […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jnews-multi-image_gallery":[],"jnews_single_post":[],"jnews_primary_category":[],"jnews_social_meta":[],"jnews_review":[],"enable_review":"","type":"","name":"","summary":"","brand":"","sku":"","good":[],"bad":[],"score_override":"","override_value":"","rating":[],"price":[],"jnews_override_counter":[],"jnews_post_split":[],"footnotes":""},"categories":[103],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-326257","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ntv-k"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326257","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=326257"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326257\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=326257"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=326257"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jetlak.app\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=326257"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}